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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/09 11:48
Resistance Pressure Keeps Livestock Contracts Trading Lower
With resistance pressure looming over all the livestock contracts, the
contracts are trading mostly lower into Tuesday's noon hour.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading cautiously into Tuesday's noon hour as
traders are well aware and respecting the market's resistance thresholds and
currently don't see enough support in the market to push the contracts above
those thresholds. No bids or asking prices have surfaced yet in the fed cash
cattle market. March corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal
is down $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 111.78 points and the
NASDAQ is up 46.86 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is off to a mild rally this morning as the market
desires to trade higher, but traders aren't confident that the market possesses
enough support to break through the market's stiff resistance at its 40-day and
100-day moving averages just yet. December live cattle are down $0.20 at
$227.12, February live cattle are up $0.55 at $227.22 and April live cattle are
up $0.52 at $227.22. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and bids and
asking prices remain elusive at this point.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for cattle and beef markets of 2025
and 2026. Beef production for 2025 was increased as both fed and non-fed
slaughter have increased, and as carcass weights continue to be at an all-time
high. Beef production for 2025 is now estimated at 25,950 million pounds -- up
194 million pounds from last month's report. Beef production for 2026 increased
from last month's report as well -- now estimated to total 25,725 million
pounds, up 335 million pounds from last month's estimate. Cattle prices,
unfortunately, softened substantially from last month's report to reflect the
market's recent prices and to account for reduced shackle space in 2026. Steer
prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $226 (down $8.00
from last month), steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average
$230 (down $12.00 from last month), steers in the second quarter of 2026 are
expected to average $234 (down $11.00 from last month's report) and steers in
the third quarter of 2026 are expected to average $236 (down $12.00 from last
month's report). Beef imports for 2025 are lowered by 20 million pounds, and
beef exports for 2025 are lowered by 45 million pounds as well. Beef imports
for 2026 are increased by 500 million pounds as reduced tariffs will affect the
influx of beef, but beef exports were decreased by 40 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.07 ($362.97) and select up $1.32
($349.92) with a movement of 80 loads (54.96 loads of choice, 12.35 loads of
select, 3.71 loads of trim and 8.98 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is trading right in line again this week with the
live cattle market -- seeing more than enough fundamental support in feeder
cattle sales in the countryside -- but without the technical reassurance from
the live cattle market, traders aren't willing to push the contracts beyond the
40-day and 100-day moving averages just yet. January feeders are down $0.47 at
$335.17, March feeders are down $0.12 at $330.30 and April feeders are up $0.27
at $330.00. Yesterday afternoon, feeder cattle prices were marked anywhere from
$5.00 to $30.00 higher as demand has again perked back up in the countryside.
LEAN HOGS:
And just like the cattle complex, the market's resistance simply seems too
stiff for the lean hog complex to challenge at this point in time, as most of
the contracts are trading lower into the day's noon hour. December lean hogs
are down $0.02 at $82.27, February lean hogs are down $0.37 at $82.00 and April
lean hogs are down $0.60 at $86.37. It's likely that the market will keep this
slightly lower tone through the day's end, as it's going to take substantial
fundamental support to develop before traders will likely challenge that
resistance threshold. And although midday pork cutout values are higher,
traders are going to need to see consistent support as well.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork markets of
2025 and 2026. Pork production for 2025 was decreased by 25 million pounds, and
pork production for 2026 remained steady at 27,475 million pounds for 2026.
Quarterly price projections also saw a decrease as hog prices in the fourth
quarter of 2025 are expected to average $64 (down $2.00 from last month's
report), hog prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $64
(down $1.00 from last month's report), hog prices in the second quarter of 2026
are expected to average $70 (unchanged from last month) and hog prices in the
third quarter of 2026 are expected to average $71 (unchanged from last month).
2025 pork imports increased by 10 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025
decreased by 10 million pounds. Pork imports for 2026 increased by 15 million
pounds to 1,175 million pounds, but pork exports for 2026 increased by 60
million pounds to 7,020 million pounds.
The projected lean hog index for 12/8/2025 is up $0.05 at $81.89, and the
actual index for 12/5/2025 is up $0.03 at $81.84. Hog prices on the Daily
Direct Morning Hog Report average $71.01, ranging from $62.00 to $74.00 on
2,391 head and a five-day rolling average of $70.66. Pork cutouts total 183.41
loads with 158.10 loads of pork cuts and 25.30 loads of trim. Pork cutout
values: up $2.76, $98.27.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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